Tuesday, March 30, 2010

the weeks

I have been keeping busy as you may have read over on Bri's blog. She has been doing a better job of providing you a window into our soul lately. I have been busy with coaching and the preparations for the swim series, coming soon. It is always nice to feel needed in some respect.

Training has been going very well. I am not doing a huge amount but what I am doing is good quality. I could run more and bike more and swim more, but there are limits to my superhuman abilities.

I am still keeping track of world economics and all that. My bias is that now is a good time to hang onto cash or low risk bonds. Stock PEs are nearing or in the 20x range which historically is not a good time to invest for the long term. The mortgage fallout is nowhere near done and foreign governments around the world are also faced with high unemployment and a smaller revenue base (hinting at higher taxes everywhere or further defaults). Our stock market looks pumped up on government steroids and the pusher is about to get busted.

Here is a picture of Obama and his evil twin, Sociobama:


At April 2, 2010 at 11:48 AM , Blogger Andrew said...

Funny you mentioned that about stocks being overvalued again; I just finished reading Irrational Exuberance. Its basically a detailed, quantitative analysis of speculative bubbles (and therefore support of behavior economics). It focuses on the stock market run-up of the 90s and puts anything over 20 p/e ratio as way overvalued.

At April 2, 2010 at 12:58 PM , Blogger martygaal said...

I have not read that one but yes it makes sense. There is a good economic blog written a fellow named Mish: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ .

And a weekly email by John Mauldin which is really thoughtful: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/gateway.asp

Between these two and a few other writers I get a lot of my unfiltered ideas. A couple newsletters back Mauldin had some info about investing when PEs were 10 / 15 / 20 and the sort of 20 year return you might get if you bought in. Eye opening!

At April 4, 2010 at 4:49 PM , Blogger Andrew said...

Thanks, I'll have to check them out.

Unfortunately I used most of my capital reserves on my down payment for my house back when the Dow was <7k. (Had to take some of the govt handout...) Now that I'm replenishing, though, I'm waiting for another dip before I through any substantial reserves the way of the stock market.

At April 5, 2010 at 11:44 AM , Blogger Bob Mitera said...

Hi Marty - what we see in the media about the economy and healthcare is really 30% of the truth. 70% or "The rub" as we call it around here is what we need to watch out for. Keep swinging the big stick!


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