Tuesday, March 30, 2010

the weeks

I have been keeping busy as you may have read over on Bri's blog. She has been doing a better job of providing you a window into our soul lately. I have been busy with coaching and the preparations for the swim series, coming soon. It is always nice to feel needed in some respect.

Training has been going very well. I am not doing a huge amount but what I am doing is good quality. I could run more and bike more and swim more, but there are limits to my superhuman abilities.

I am still keeping track of world economics and all that. My bias is that now is a good time to hang onto cash or low risk bonds. Stock PEs are nearing or in the 20x range which historically is not a good time to invest for the long term. The mortgage fallout is nowhere near done and foreign governments around the world are also faced with high unemployment and a smaller revenue base (hinting at higher taxes everywhere or further defaults). Our stock market looks pumped up on government steroids and the pusher is about to get busted.


Andrew said...

Funny you mentioned that about stocks being overvalued again; I just finished reading Irrational Exuberance. Its basically a detailed, quantitative analysis of speculative bubbles (and therefore support of behavior economics). It focuses on the stock market run-up of the 90s and puts anything over 20 p/e ratio as way overvalued.

martygaal said...

I have not read that one but yes it makes sense. There is a good economic blog written a fellow named Mish: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/ .

And a weekly email by John Mauldin which is really thoughtful: http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/gateway.asp

Between these two and a few other writers I get a lot of my unfiltered ideas. A couple newsletters back Mauldin had some info about investing when PEs were 10 / 15 / 20 and the sort of 20 year return you might get if you bought in. Eye opening!

Andrew said...

Thanks, I'll have to check them out.

Unfortunately I used most of my capital reserves on my down payment for my house back when the Dow was <7k. (Had to take some of the govt handout...) Now that I'm replenishing, though, I'm waiting for another dip before I through any substantial reserves the way of the stock market.

Bob Mitera said...

Hi Marty - what we see in the media about the economy and healthcare is really 30% of the truth. 70% or "The rub" as we call it around here is what we need to watch out for. Keep swinging the big stick!