I have been trying to catch a levitating knife by buying short ETFs and putting in a tight stop just about every day this week. Against all rhyme and reason the stock market has kept going up, which looks nice but seems to be pretty detached from reality. The pace of job loss has slowed, not reversed, so we celebrate. Earnings were bad, but not as bad as they could have been, so we celebrate. The 3rd wave of mortgage defaults are on the way, but it's OK, don't sweat it. I expect a big pullback at some point in the relatively near future. Anyway I have caught a few nicks with ETFs like DXD and SRS, but kept the stops tight.
My new motto is to make lots of money and save even more (through the power of thievery and graft). Or be a banker.
My expectation is that the domestic market will experience another 15-25% pullback and then hover there for a few months to digest the new reality. Less employment & greater government debt = less $ for investing & discretionary purchases + higher taxes = less buyers = less demand = lower sales = less gross revenue = overvalued P/E ratios = an ultimate adjustment.
But I also don't know what I'm talking about.
Friday, August 7, 2009
Posted by martygaal at 3:35 PM
Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)
Post a Comment